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The One Thing: 8/17“0 Comments”
admin | 9:52 pm | August 17, 2008 | The One Thing
The One Thing has taken a bit of a back seat to life. I was going good early, but as the season progresses, the landscape becomes much clearer. I suspect that this is the reason why I haven’t written as much. The reality is that I write this for myself since it allows me to distill thoughts. Heck, the daily exhibition reports I did this year was so that I would be forced to keep up on a daily basis as to what was going on in spring training games.
Fantasy baseball is not about drafting and holding Jensen Lewis the whole season so that you can benefit when he gets a few saves at the end of the year. It is about maximizing the contributions that the players make when they are on your roster. In the grand scheme of things, fantasy baseball is a large, complex, poorly-defined dynamic optimization problem. It needs to be treated as such. Ron Shandler says to “exercise excrutiating patience”. That is valid for proven performers whose playing time is not tied to performance. For the rest of the player pool, you need to always have your hand on the “drop” button. If you kept Juan Rivera active on your roster the entire year in the hope that he’d get going in the second half, you wasted half a season. When it was clear he wasn’t playing (at all) in April, he should have been gone.
Just an update on my performance this year, as 8/18:
Home League (AMONLY): After winning the first half, I have a 2 point lead overall (and have a 15.5 point lead in the second half).
CBSSportsLine Analysts League: I’ve had a rough year (I didn’t have a good draft), but am currently in 5th place. I hope to finish the season in 4th place in this 12-team league.
Ultimate AL Challenge: I am 15 - 3 in this h2h league and have clinched the best record in the league. My team has broken historical scoring records for this league.
IceStorm AL: I am in 2nd by a few points following a terrible Garrett Olson start today. I’ve been in first as recently as yesterday. Not sure if I can win this league but I’ll try to the end.
So, overall, its been a pretty good year. Hope its been good for you and I’ve helped out a bit here and there. Note that I am going to review some of the suggestions I made during the spring to see how they’ve panned out during an up-coming blog post.
The One Thing: 8/8“0 Comments”
admin | 9:44 pm | August 8, 2008 | The One Thing
The One Thing I learned today is that I have to keep up better with my blog! Baseball-related, we saw Jensen Lewis close out a game in Cleveland tonight. I think Lewis is a guy that the Indians thought would be a bigger part of their bullpen this year, but he struggled early and was shipped out to Buffalo. He’s back now and is in the mix for saves in Cleveland.
Also, if you need a speed injection in September, look at Wayne Lydon for Toronto. He already has 40 SB in AAA and would be useful from the leadoff spot. He’d give the Jays a different look to their offense.
The One Thing: 8/1“0 Comments”
admin | 9:33 pm | August 1, 2008 | The One Thing
The One Thing we learned today is that Yuni Betancourt is out with a sore elbow. His manager also needs him to be a bit more selective at the plate. In other news
- By the time you read this, I suspect Eddie Guardado will be the new closer in Texas. CJ Wilson has just been terrible and his recent outings would make Joe Borowski and Todd Jones look good.
- Rocco Baldelli might get a call-up over the weekend and start out as DH against left-handed pitching. If he hits, he could easily steal at bats away from Cliff Floyd.
- Minnesota has recalled Randy Ruiz. He gets his first taste of the Majors after nearly 1000 minor league games. The 31-year old Ruiz could soak up some at bats against left-handed pitching and hit 6th on Friday as the DH, recording his first hit.
The One Thing: 7/28“0 Comments”
admin | 10:04 pm | July 28, 2008 | The One Thing
The One Thing has been silent for a few days…been out of town. But I am ready to post some notes.
- If (and it is a big if) George Sherrill is traded, Jim Johnson seems likely to get the first crack as closer, though he certainly shouldn’t be viewed as a long-term guy.
- It has been a strange year for Ryan Garko. All of his peripheral stats look solid and consistent from last year. However, his hit rate is a terrible 26% and he has only 19 extra base hits in 350 at bats. Since he’s only 27 years old, I am inclined to think that this is just an extended slump and nothing more. He’s certainly a guy who could hit 12 HR the rest of the way to salvage his season.
- Yuni Betancourt had indicators that seemed to point towards more power this season. His line drive rate has gone up. He’s hitting more fly balls. However, his hit rate is 26% so he isn’t getting lucky. He puts a lot of balls in play and hardly walks or strikes out. Currently, he is slumping, which means the balls he puts in play are finding mitts. He’ll go through a hot streak soon, so if you are in desperate need, he’s do for some good things during the next two months.
- If you are in need of SBs, Wayne Lydon could get the call by September for Toronto. Lydon has 39 steals this year and sports a 0.354 OBP for AAA Syracuse. By that time, Toronto will be looking to 2009.
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