TOT: July 1st“0 Comments”

admin | 9:33 pm | July 1, 2009 | The One Thing (TOT)

As I mentioned earlier this season (and last year), this blog is mostly for March, April and May. As the season drags on, there is much less value-added in my analysis. After all, I provide advice on playing time and projecting what a manager will do, which is most useful during the early part of the year.

At any rate, it is time for my annual “10 and 40″ column. The “10″ here is HR and the “40″ is RBI. Basically, I am going to list some players in the AL (obviously) who have been low producers (so far) but have the potential to put up 10 HR and 40 RBI in the second half of the season. Also, they will have to be cheap players (re: I never tout stars since you don’t need to be Nostradamus to project Vernon Wells as a 10/40 guy).

Ty Wigginton (BAL) — You have to figure someone will get hurt/traded away from the Orioles and open up a slot for Wiggy full-time. Huff is the likely candidate to go and Wiggy could then play every day. As is, he gets his bat into the lineup alot. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see him reach 10 and 40 at all.

AJ Pierzynski (CWS) — AJ has 8 HR so far, but only 24 RBI. He flies under the radar and is playing less often, so having a big second half seems unlikely.

Ryan Garko (CLE) — Garko needs an injury to open up more playing time, but could easily reach 10 and 40 if given the opportunity. Maybe he needs a change of scenary.

Ramon Santiago (DET) — Santiago is SLG nearly 0.500 on the season and would only need consistent at bats to have a change to reach the 10 / 40 level. He’ll need to hope for an Adam Everett or Placido Polonco injury to have a shot.

Erik Hinske (NYY) — If/when someone gets injured (Tex, Swisher, Damon, Arod, Matsui), Hinske could start to see everyday at bats. With the left-field porch in Yankee stadium, Hinske could have a big second half…if he can only get in the lineup.

Kenji Johjima (SEA) — Now that he’s healthy, Johjima should get plenty of at bats. He’s had 18 HR in a season before, so a hot streak is not out of the question. A long shot, obviously, but at least he’ll get an opportunity.

TOT: June 11th“0 Comments”

admin | 10:51 pm | June 11, 2009 | The One Thing (TOT)

Kevin Millwood is having a great year so far. He is owed some good fortune since his BABIP the last two years were 0.348 and 0.366. This year he’s getting the breaks with a 0.262 BABIP. Also, his pen has stranded 85% of the runners he’s left on base when leaving a game. More concerning, however, is his lack of strikeouts. So let’s put it all together.

1. Millwood has been very lucky on balls in play this season.
2. He still pitches in Texas (yikes).
3. His K-rate is a career low.
4. His HR-rate is one of the highest in his career.
5. His strand rate is very high.

On a positive note, batters are hitting less line drives off of him.

However, putting this all together, the rest of 2009 won’t end well for Millwood, despite his great outing vs. Toronto tonight. You’ve been warned.

By the way, much of this information is from the amazing fangraphs site.

TOT: June 8th“0 Comments”

admin | 9:35 pm | June 8, 2009 | The One Thing (TOT)

Some random thoughts on a variety of pitchers…so far:

Bonderman hit 90 and 91 today, but had no movement. He is really going to struggle trying to get Major league hitters out at that speed. He needs to reinvent himself. He talked about using his change-up effectively in AAA, but he didn’t really use it at all today. Check back with Bonderman in a month to see where he is at.
Jeremy Guthrie got lit up the other day, not making it out of the first inning. His location was awful, but his velocity was fine. Guthrie has shown an up-tick in his K-rate, so he is a guy who might be in line for an improved performance the rest of the way. Snoop around to see if he is cheap.
Carl Pavano is pitching very well. He is getting more K’s (through less contact) and his BB rate has dropped. He could sustain this for the rest of the year as long as he is healthy.
I get a gut feeling that Jeremy Sowers is finally going to settle in as a #4 or 5 starter the rest of the way. He’s not a #1 despite his lofty draft status. He is doing a better job of missing bats this year than last year.
If you haven’t gotten rid of Kevin Millwood for something more stable, the roof is going to cave in soon. Your window of opportunity to swap him has not closed yet, but it could happen any start.

TOT: June 4th“0 Comments”

admin | 8:00 am | June 5, 2009 | The One Thing (TOT)

I haven’t been writing alot. You see, my value added (I feel) comes before the season and early on in the season. As the year progresses, what I bring to the table is not as valuable as what others do much better than I can. Remember, my deal is on playing time and on using what managers have done in the past to make decisions about the future.

A good case in point to contrast this is from Baseball Prospectus. They have tremendous writers there, which will only be improved once they identify their Prospectus Idol. However, there is still a general theme (though less obvious now) about how such-and-such rookie is the best thing since sliced bread and, more importantly, better than the established pro (likely on the down side of his career) on the team. One writer commented before the season how he would not be shocked to see Travis Snider as the best hitter on Toronto this season. I remember thinking “I’d be shocked”. The guy was 21 to start the season and had all of 80 at bats in the Majors…and only 70 at bats at AAA! Yes…I’d be shocked. I did not (and do not) own Snider in any of my leagues. In my book, it was no shock that Snider is now down at AAA in order to beat up on Minor League pitching…instead of those 70 at bats he received.

Anyway, let me opine on some playing time issues in the AL.

Jamey Carroll played a lot last year and with Asdrubal Cabrera out, expect Carroll to get the bulk of the time. Eric Wedge likes guys who produce for him and will play them.
Matt Joyce is no joke for Tampa Bay. He was producing at AAA and had nothing left to prove there. If/when Burrell returns, expect Joyce to still see a lot of at bats. The Rays are also somewhat “pressured” to show what they received for trading away Edwin Jackson.
This whole “Howie Kendrick to AAA” talk is just nonsense. If you can pry him off a fidgety owner, now would be a good time. However, he does have a history of injury which is a more real concern in my book.
Jeff Clement strikes out much more now than he did last year at AAA. And he’s hit for less power. The guy is going to be 26 in August. I don’t see much from him if/when he makes in back to the Majors.

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